Q&A: How Bad Is It Really in the Publishing Industry?
By Jane Friedman | December 28, 2010 |
Sarah Woodbury asked: I’d like to see an assessment from an agent, published author, and an editor about what happened in 2009-2010 in the publishing world. I’ve heard some amazing things (30% of employees laid off, advances down 50%, sales down a similar amount, publishing houses not buying books at all for months at a time, reprinting older books rather than buying new ones) and I’d like to know what’s true and what’s not.
This is an excellent question, but also difficult to answer definitively. For most publishing companies and agencies (and authors!), this information is considered a competitive advantage, so few are willing to outline specifics, especially when related to a decline.
The other difficulty is that you’ll get a diversity of answers based on who you ask, what their category or genre is, and how long they’ve been in the business.
For example, consider the 4 different answers given to me by 4 literary agents, earlier this year, on the topic of lower advances:
Wendy Keller: “It’s horribly true that advances are down and so are the number of books publishers are buying. Dramatically.”
Paige Wheeler: “Personally, I haven’t found [advances] shrinking, but for the midlist author, they certainly aren’t growing. I think publishers are being more selective, and their offers are more in line with their enthusiasm for a project. That stated, I find I’ve had to explain to my midlist authors to prepare for a decrease in advances for subsequent books if the first few books didn’t make a huge splash. We’re working harder to grow these authors and develop bigger book ideas.”
Richard Curtis: “I’m blessed to represent a core group of successful authors whose advances have held steady or even increased. We also handle many genre books that traditionally are more resistant to downward pressure than ‘softer’ kinds of literature, such as general fiction. Where we definitely feel the ‘shrink’ is in the resistance to new authors. The wall is far higher than we’ve ever seen it, and sadly that means we must turn more newcomers away than we want to.”
Scott Waxman: “It has made us more selective on what we will submit to publishers.”
(Read the full roundtable here, from Writer’s Digest.)
I can say from personal experience, after working at a mid-size publisher that focused on special-interest media, that the percentages you’re throwing out there are pretty spot on. I acquired titles and negotiated contracts starting in 1998 for my company, and everything changed in 2009.
One piece of hard, public evidence you can easily follow is bookstore earnings and store closings. Fewer stores or weak store sales will lead to lower buys from bookstores, smaller print runs for publishers, and smaller advances for authors—and sometimes fewer books published overall.
Here are the most recent stats and articles that are revelatory.
Bookstores
- In December 2010, Borders reported a third-quarter loss of more than $74 million, and confirmed that it is closing 16 stores. [Source: NPR]
- Books-a-Million has reported weakness in hardcover sales, and strength in bargain books. In the future, they see opportunities in the new toy, gift and electronics departments. [Source: Yahoo! Finance]
- In November 2010, Barnes & Noble said they anticipate closing 8-10 stores in the fiscal year. They reported that same-store sales fell 3.3 percent at their stores, while BN.com sales rose 59 percent compared to a year ago. Also, the decline in print book sales at the stores was masked by sales of Nook devices—as well as expanded toys and games departments, which rose 42 percent. [Source: PublishersMarketplace, requires subscription, worth every penny if you want to keep tabs on the industry]
- In February 2010, the Booksellers Association in the UK reported two independent bookstores closing every week. [Source: Guardian]
- Of the 797 B. Dalton Booksellers stores that Barnes & Noble acquired in 1987, only four remain. [Source: WSJ]
- Borders now operates 175 Waldenbooks stores, down from 1,200 in 1992. [Source: WSJ]
Publishers
- In a July 2010 discussion about Penguin’s results, CEO John Makinson said the company had taken “some quite painful action, including the relocation of a lot of functions to New Delhi, where DK now employs 250 people” and reduction of frontlist by a third. [Source: Publishers Marketplace, requires subscription]
- At Scholastic, 5–10 percent fewer hardcover picture books have been published over the last three years. Of all the children’s books published by Simon & Schuster, about 20 percent are picture books, down from 35 percent a few years ago. [Source: New York Times]
- When reporting its quarterly results, News Corp. has now eliminated book publishing breakouts for HarperCollins. Publishers Marketplace reports, “Reinforcing the diminished importance of HarperCollins in the overall corporate picture, their name is not mentioned once in the new quarterly report—which uses the word “book” only once, in a footnote explaining that it has disappeared.”
If you’d like a narrative account of changes taking place (with predictions), this blog post by former HarperStudio publisher, Bob Miller, still carries meaning and insight after a year.
All that said, there’s a much bigger wild card sitting out there that impacts what’s happening: e-books. Publishing’s business model is transforming as more people switch to e-reading devices or tablets, and it will likely take years before you start to see firm or expected standards—i.e., “normalcy.”
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, “E-Books Rewrite Bookselling,” has an excellent overview of this dynamic; here’s a brief snippet:
Nowhere is the e-book tidal wave hitting harder than at bricks-and-mortar book retailers. The competitive advantage Barnes & Noble spent decades amassing … was already under pressure from online booksellers.
It evaporated with the recent advent of e-bookstores, where readers can access millions of titles for e-reader devices.
Even more problematic for brick-and-mortar retailers is the math if sales of physical books rapidly decrease: Because e-books don’t require paper, printing presses, storage space or delivery trucks, they typically sell for less than half the price of a hardcover book. If physical book sales decline precipitously, chain retailers won’t have enough revenue to support all their stores.
I highly recommend reading the full WSJ article, and then immediately subscribing to Mike Shatzkin’s blog. He has the best insight into the changes underway, and while he might not always be able to give hard data to back up his statements and predictions, his 30 years of experience and insider connections make him one of the most trustworthy sources on the past, present, and future of publishing.
Photo courtesy Flickr’s 35mmDan
Jane Friedman has more than 20 years in the publishing industry, with expertise in digital media and the future of authorship. She’s the co-founder and editor of The Hot Sheet, the essential industry newsletter for authors. You can find out more about her consulting services and online classes at her website, JaneFriedman.com.
Thanks for this well-balanced overview. Over the past couple of years, too many blogs and news stories on the current state of the publishing business have tended to choose one narrow aspect to highlight (or sensationalize), and often offered little to substantiate whatever provocative or inflammatory claims were being made. Thanks for being a voice of reason, and for including so many links to allow the reader to dig deeper.
Fantastic answer, Jane, and what a wealth of resources you’ve left us to sift through. I think e-books will benefit authors in the end, but that the distributors like bookstores will suffer. 2011 should be interesting, to say the least!
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Todd Rutherford. Todd Rutherford said: Q&A: How Bad Is It Really in the Publishing Industry? https://bit.ly/eOmyxH […]
I am unsurprised to hear these numbers. As a novice writer just beginning to navigate the publishing seas, one might expect this to be dismaying news, but somehow it is not. As much as I love reading, as much as I go to libraries and used bookstores for rest and renewal, these big bookstores are simply too expensive and unnecessarily glossy. They were ripe for harpooning, the bloated bastards.
It seems to me that the publishing industry is being rejiggered and we cannot tell what the end result will be. But for those of us who are entrepreneurial and enterprising, or perhaps more importantly have a day job we like, this is a good time to experiment with e-books, with new formats, with self- or indie-publishing. The industry will recover. There’s no need for dire pronouncements about the end of print books. I for one am very curious to see how it all comes out.
All of which means its a huge challenge to get published – if only it were as simple as talent rising to the top, but I’m not even convinced that happens.
This is very interesting. It makes me feel better in some ways. Thanks for the roundup and for directing me to Mike S.’s blog. I look forward to reading it.
Truly a balanced and comprehensive view of an industry that we all recognize is moving rapidly–but we’re not totally sure in what direction. Thanks for sharing.
As an aspiring author, knowing the facts does help quite a bit. Knowing the obstacles you are up against helps my resolve (and realize that it’s not necessarily about my writing abilities). Thanks for this article.
Great and balanced article, Jane. Thanks for presenting it.
Great and balanced article, Jane. Thanks for presenting it.
You’ve provided a wealth of information and exactly the kind of answer I was looking for! Thank you, thank you!
You’ve provided a wealth of information and exactly the kind of answer I was looking for! (Even if rather depressing as someone who’s been pursuing the traditional publishing path). Thank you, thank you!
very interesting and well balanced report on the state of the industry – haven’t delved into the links yet.
I am one who now finds online buying of printed books easier on my pension than the bookshops, I have an e-reader and listen to audiobooks – there is room for all formats.
I am putting my books up as e books as well as selling the paperbacks – it is a vibrant and interestingly rapidly changing landscape and I look foward to seeing the outcome.
Thanks for the informative article. It confirms that publishing as we know it is changing, but I have a feeling there are exciting things ahead for authors and publishers.
Well-balanced, thoughtful, and educational article–as usual Ms. Friedman. Now it’s off to check out all those links you mentioned.
I just wish there was a box where we could all put our predictions for the future of the book business, seal it, then open it at the end of 2011. (Although, I’m so confused by what’s going on these days, I know my predictions would be off by a mile.)
Interesting times. Scary times. Fascinating times.
[…] Jane Friedman’s guest post at Writer Unboxed. […]
Maybe if this business was run like a business, it would have a better chance of survival. Keeping the archaic practice of returns alive plus adding idiotic practices like keeping tables full of $5.99 bargain books next to their new hardcover sections and selling Used books on the same on-line pages as New books might explain why a lot of these publishers and booksellers are doomed to fall prey to natural selection.
They are, quite frankly, too stupid to survive!
These are things I’ve been hearing over and over again. Is it any wonder more writers are going in the direction of eBook publishers, or POD’s?
Lorelei’s Muse https://loreleismuse-lorelei.blogspot.com
The reality is that large corporations are inherently resistant to change. Publishers held a lock on distribution. They don’t any longer. The reality is the retail distribution of books has changed dramatically. At the beginning of 2010 I had people literally cursing me out on social media based on my predictions reference eBooks. I still believe the Big 6 are ‘juking’ their stats regarding percentage of sales. Every author I know says their ebooks sales are at least 40% based on their royalty statements and for most it’s well over 60%. Yet publishers maintain eBook sales are only 10%. Even if that’s true, it’s a 300% increase from the beginning of the year. Things are increasing exponentially, not linearly. So project even what they admit into 2011.
What amazes me is that traditional publishers are still looking at their midlist authors with disdain and unwilling to really work with them on social media and promoting. Since 90% of their profit comes from 10% of their authors, it’s understandable but they fail to look forward to see where their next 10% is going to come from.
It seems that a lot of the wounds inflicted on the publishing industry are connected to the decline of brick-and-mortar bookstores. Perhaps the the future wouldn’t appear so dire if publishers took bookstores out of the equation and began to focus on readers. I can count on both hands and feet the number of times I’ve been told that publishers market their books to booksellers rather than consumers, which causes me to believe that the woes are the result of a bad equation. If you look at e-book sales, goodreads, amazon boards, Twitter, reader/review message boards and blogs, etc etc, people are reading just as much, if not more, than ever. It’s disingenuous of publishers to give authors the shaft (aka their advances and print runs) simply because publishers are working with an outmoded sales/marketing model.
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Teresa Medeiros, Jenni Holbrook-Talty, Christine Carmichael and others. Christine Carmichael said: Q&A: How Bad Is It Really in the Publishing Industry? by Jane Friedman ~ Jo ~… http://fb.me/PrHxR0UZ […]
A lot of great information, Jane. Also from Bob’s comment. Though I’m self-published in e-books, I’m sorry to hear this. Most of my writer friends have NY publishers, and I want a better playing field (and paying field) for them.
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by damiella. damiella said: How Bad Is It Really in the Publishing Industry? https://bit.ly/ft3lVt (e-books can only go so far in helping matters) […]
Whatever the industry does, writers still have to write. Nothing changed with that.
People are going to want to read,the consumer will find a way to get what they want even if the sellers cannot keep up.
Continue writing, no matter what happens to the industry. If you are a true writer at heart, no depressing statistics can deter your passion.
On the other hand, knowing the state of the publishing industry allows us to set realistic goals in regards to our mss.
This is an amazing article. I just started subscribing to this blog and absolutely love it. Thanks for writing such a balanced, thoughtful piece filled with great information from a variety of perspectives.
Thank you. Some real information backed by numbers. A change from just the usual moan — although clearly there is reason to moan!
hi,
while im not a published author (yet) — i am an avid reader and enjoy an ongoing love affair with my local library and bookstores…
having said that — can someone PLEASE tell me that I’m not the only one who greatly dislikes these e-reader things? There is something so wholesome and magical about holding a book in your hand… crinkling the pages, gripping it when the story gets good, and being able to physically turn the pages instead of pushing a button on screen.
we all know the scene – sitting by a fireplace, curled up by the fireplace, a mug of hot cocoa and a good book. Imagine changing that to curling up with a kindle?! Just doesnt sit right with me.
Please tell me that books wont become obsolete :(
The economy is making it hard for all businesses right now, not just publishing. In Vancouver (Canada), we have more vacant retail spaces than I’ve seen in a long time.
We lost one of our favorite book stores (Duthie’s) earlier this year, but another one opened down the street. We have a bunch of “hybrid” bookstores — offering both used and new.
I own a board games store, so I’ve noticed more and more bookstores carrying board games. The cheeky monkeys!
Things are changing, but there is life. If we ever get out of recession, (I believe) there will be avalanches of new books.
[…] this brings us to a Writer Unboxed post by Jane Friedman on the how bad it really is in the publishing industry. After you read it, be sure […]
This news is strangely encouraging, a sense of expectancy for what the market can now mean in the digital age. I just bought my first ereader, and am already in love with what it can do. After years of clinging to the smell of the paper, the touch of the bindings, the dog-eared corners of my favorite books, vague and generalized skepticism, and well, “tight-wadness”, I made the plunge. The water’s fine, the ocean is vast, and I believe that the ereader will transform and reinvigorate readership with a whole new generation of book lovers.
[…] As more and more publishing options open up, the traditional route won’t always be the best first choice for every author. Knowing the tangible advantages a traditional publisher offers will be critical to making an informed decision. […]
Jane, I can’t wait to hear your report this time next year. It feels like the winds could blow in any direction. It’s a time for reinvention and opportunity!
[…] As more and more publishing options open up, the traditional route won’t always be the best first choice for every author. Knowing the tangible advantages a traditional publisher offers will be critical to making an informed decision. […]
I’m not surprised. Maybe for some people, buying an ereader means they buy less books from a store. But for me, as I’m sure for others, it means I’m purchasing books I would have waited for previously. I’m not buying any less from bookstores then I have previously. I’m just buying more for my ereader. Thanks for all this well laid out information.
As a technical communications major who’s been trained in the design of the publication as much as the content, and belonging to the “minimalist” camp, I’m frustrated by the overall book design of the last few decades. Publishers seem to think the fatter the book is, the more we’ll be willing to pay for it. ‘Sucse me, but I don’t buy books by the yard, I buy them by the content. I once got two copies of Floodgate by Alistar MacLean at a local library sell-off. One was a first edition, the other a book club edition. The difference between them? The first edition had about 30% more pages than the UNABRIDGED bookclub edition. I just finished rereading Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, and through the whole book I’m thinking, “Why are they wasting all this space? Why is there so much leading? And why are the margins so big? Tighten up the leading and trim the margins,and it’ll not only read faster, but take less papaer to print, cost less, and take up less space on my shelf (so I have room to buy more).
I am a self published author and a recent Kindle owner. Getting published has been the most frustrating part of the whole process. I even went to writers conferences and really learned nothing that wasn’t obvious about the publishing industry; they all are doing it for money. With ereaders becoming more available it at least gives us low profile writers a chance to show our passion in writting to the rest of you to examine. I for one am happy to have the chance to share my story with the rest of you.
I attended a similar discussion at the 2009 and 2010 Killer Nashville conference. I boiled down the hour and a half seminar to five words: Do your best. Good luck.
Which is the case here. Yes, you have to do some research and some homework, but it’s trying to learn as much as you can and takign the shot and hoping for the best.
[…] Q&A: How Bad Is It Really in the Publishing Industry? […]
Yep. The industry’s foundation is shaky. I could not get an agent. I couldn’t even get an eBook publisher interested–4 months dealing with the editor, and got no where. Finally placed my book with a good POD I’ve got a soft-bound and on Kindle. Had a great book signing too.
After 30 years of trying to do it “traditionally”, I actually stepped out of the “box” and went with POD. I may not make a fortune, but I know I’ll be publishing this way from now on.
[…] another summary of the TWTIP (Train Wreck That Is Publishing) in […]